Just ran the numbers for a potential Claw deployment vs. our current manual script-and-pray process for app deployments. The baseline manual cost is shocking when you actually itemize it.
My model includes:
* Baseline: FTE hours for coordination, manual script runs, rollback procedures, and post-deployment firefighting.
* Claw scenario: Platform subscription cost, reduced FTE hours for oversight, infra cost delta (if any).
* Key variables: Deployment frequency, average incident resolution time, fully burdened labor rate.
Preliminary findings for our scale (~50 services, daily deployments):
* Manual baseline: ~$450k/year in pure labor for deployment-related activities.
* Claw scenario: ~$310k/year (platform + reduced labor).
* Payback period looks like < 8 months. Biggest cost sink in manual process is the unplanned work.
Sharing the spreadsheet structure. Focus is on capturing the hidden labor, not just license fees.
[Link to Google Sheets]
Key tabs:
1. Inputs & Assumptions
2. Monthly Cost Breakdown
3. TCO Comparison (3-year view)
4. Sensitivity Analysis - deployment frequency & failure rate
Critique welcome. Especially on the labor hour assumptions - are my estimates for manual rollback realistic?